Shaping Beliefs: History Communication After Conflict

Abstract: In the aftermath of conflict, how should history be communicated to promote long-run peace? We develop a dynamic model in which rival groups repeatedly engage in conflict games with unknown, evolving costs revealed only through conflict. The optimal communication policy balances the likelihood of immediate peace against its persistence. More informative communication sustains longer periods of peace, whereas less informative communication increases the chance of immediate peace but shortens its duration. The optimal policy depends on the persistence of the environment, with less informative communication preferred in more unstable settings. Our framework provides insights into post-conflict communication, with implications for transitional justice and peace agreements.